Fire AggroTier 1
at 紙牌屋店冠賽
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-1-2
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
67.6%
avg ELO +8.9 per match
expected value
54.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1455
· median 1455
· range 1455–1455
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1211
Q3 1409
1535
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.6% | +17.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.0% | +22.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Aggro decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
